The APFS snapshot that Time Machine takes of the primary volume at the beginning of the backup captures every file in that volume. Excluding a file/folder from Time Machine backups only means that the file does not get copied from that snapshot to the backup disk. That behavior is behind the recommendation to run VMs from a volume that's not being backed up by Time Machine.
I still think that Time Machine retains at least one local snapshot between backups. You can confirm that either with the tmutil command that has provided or check Disk Utility (it has the option of showing the snapshots that exist on an APFS volume). I believe that part of Time Machine's pruning at the end of a backup is to remove any local snapshot more than 1 day old that has been transferred to the backup disk.
If my recollection is correct, that means that there's likely still a snapshot on your primary disk volumes that has to be maintained between your 3 day span between backups (unless, of course you manually delete it after your backup is complete).. If your VM is located on disks that are being snapshotted, the snapshot size will be based on how many disk blocks that have changed in your VM in the last 3 days - whether you have the VM excluded or not.
FYI if you're running Ventura or later, it has the ability to choose hourly, daily or weekly backups.